March/April Gatti Report

Thu, 16 Apr 2026 17:44:28 GMT

March/April THE GATTI REPORT

YOUR GREATER DANVILLE AREA REAL ESTATE UPDATE

At its March 18 meeting, the Federal Reserve held interest rates steady, as expected. However, Chair Jerome Powell emphasized that inflation has not cooled as much as anticipated, raising concerns among investors. The Fed also acknowledged uncertainty surrounding the economic impact of the U.S.–Iran conflict, noting that its trajectory remains unclear, even as rising oil prices have already pushed near-term inflation expectations higher.

In response, mortgage rates have moved quickly, rising from 5.99% to 6.43% following the onset of the conflict. These shifts, driven by bond yields and inflation pressures tied to energy costs, highlight how closely housing affordability is linked to both monetary policy and global events.

The start of the 2026 spring housing market is echoing a familiar pattern from this time last year. In 2025, new tariff policies introduced volatility across stocks, interest rates, and ultimately real estate activity. This year, a different global force is at play: the war in Iran, creating similar ripple effects through rising oil prices and shifting economic expectations. Locally, inventory is clearly increasing, yet how these geopolitical pressures will influence buyer and seller behaviour remains uncertain. As April and the months ahead unfold, the interaction between rising inventory, mortgage rate trends, and buyer sentiment will ultimately define the market’s direction. For those considering buying or selling, the Gatti Team, powered by Compass —the nation’s #1 brokerage—is here to provide clarity, strategy, and confidence in an evolving landscape.

The Federal Reserve & Economic Impact

Prior to the conflict, the housing market had been gaining momentum. By late February 2026, the 30-year fixed mortgage rate had reached its lowest level since September 2022, helping reengage buyers ahead of the spring season. That optimism shifted quickly after February 28, as rates climbed back above 6.1% and the 10-year Treasury yield moved past 4%.

If elevated oil prices persist, inflation expectations could remain fi rm, limiting the Federal Reserve’s ability to cut rates in the near term and potentially delaying meaningful relief until later in 2026. For buyers, even modest rate increases significantly impact affordability, and a sustained move into the mid-6% range could sideline many who were just beginning to reenter the market.

Shifting Momentum in the Mortgage Market

Alamo, Danville, Diablo, and San Ramon

Locally, the Greater Danville area is reflecting these broader dynamics. The current data shows a notable shift in activity:

Active Inventory: Risen to 187 active detached listings (up 23% from 152 last month).
Pending Sales: Increased from 71 to 103 (a 45.1% jump).

While buyer activity remains present, it is more measured. This has created a “watch and see” environment, with both buyers and sellers adjusting expectations in real time. As the spring market progresses, the balance between rising inventory and interest rate movement will be critical. If rates remain elevated, the market may absorb both current and incoming listings more slowly than previously anticipated, placing greater emphasis on pricing, preparation, and strategy.

Local Market Update: Greater Danville Area

Looking ahead, the conflict in Iran—and its influence on oil prices—will remain a key factor shaping the housing market. Oil serves as a leading indicator of inflation, affecting costs across transportation, manufacturing, groceries, and construction. As these costs rise, inflation expectations tend to increase, Treasury yields follow, and mortgage rates adjust accordingly. This chain reaction directly impacts buyer affordability and overall demand. Ultimately, the market’s trajectory will be shaped by the ongoing relationship between interest rates, housing supply, and broader economic forces.

Looking Ahead: The Global Influence

With this level of uncertainty, having experienced and trusted real estate advisors in your corner is more important than ever. Whether you are considering buying or selling in 2026, the Gatti Team provides the expertise and guidance to help you navigate the market with a clear, thoughtful strategy.

With 14 years of experience serving the Greater Danville area, I bring deep market knowledge and a personalized, strategic approach to every client relationship. As an Associate Broker with Compass, I combine national resources with local expertise to deliver results. I’ve also had the privilege of working alongside my father, Ron Gatti, whose 48 years in local real estate built a strong foundation in this community.

Today, my focus remains on guiding clients with modern strategies, clear communication, and a commitment to success helping you navigate the market with confidence and achieve your real estate goals.

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